ZhigengScience

The AI boom has dragged the 'Jevons Paradox,' buried deep in early economic theory, into public view—the same phenomenon, interpreted differently, yields diametrically opposite conclusions. In 1865, Jevons discovered that technological progress raised the efficiency of coal use, yet consumed more coal rather than saving it. Pessimists sound the alarm with it; optimists proclaim the economy's inexhaustible motive force. So is the Jevons Paradox good news, or bad news?

The universe's temperature spans from near absolute zero to billions of degrees, yet the window habitable to humans is only a dozen degrees wide—hypothermia at a 35°C core, heat stroke at a 35°C wet-bulb, two life-and-death lines bracketing our entire living space. So-called 'clean energy' can only wash away 'carbon': wind, water, tides, and geothermal heat are the very engines of the ecosystem; coal, oil, and gas are irreplaceable material feedstocks; hydrogen carries two hidden debts of leakage and escape; and both nuclear and fusion keep feeding the 'big quilt.' Heat is the final pollution. What we lack was never cleaner energy, but less energy.

Those who cannot use AI will be killed off by those who can; those who misuse AI will be killed off by AI itself. The first three industrial revolutions replaced physical strength yet always found compensation; the fourth revolution replaces intellectual strength itself, yet the newly opened window is nowhere to be seen. This article dissects this dual mechanism and searches for two moats.

Looking at near-Earth orbit through an ecological lens: a low-orbit ecosystem has already formed, composed of producers, consumers, decomposers, and the runaway "invasive species" of space debris—and the orbital tug (OTV) is precisely the keystone species that can rebuild its order. Space is not a frontier to be conquered, but an ecosystem to coexist with.

The 1.5°C target is dead, 1.8°C is a placebo, and 2.0°C is equally indefensible on the current path. The greenhouse effect is a "big quilt" woven from many gases; cutting only carbon dioxide leaves the quilt intact—and as long as the quilt remains, every joule of waste heat humanity emits directly warms the planet. What is truly missing is the "total heat emission limit" that no one has ever dared to mention.

Since the lobsters arrived, the word Agent has been appearing more and more often, yet many people still can't tell AI, LLMs, Harnesses, and Agents apart. This essay traces the history of the Agent concept — and offers my view: the Agent is the Actor in World 4. Understanding this is your ticket to navigating the world to come.