AI&科技

The AI boom has dragged the 'Jevons Paradox,' buried deep in early economic theory, into public view—the same phenomenon, interpreted differently, yields diametrically opposite conclusions. In 1865, Jevons discovered that technological progress raised the efficiency of coal use, yet consumed more coal rather than saving it. Pessimists sound the alarm with it; optimists proclaim the economy's inexhaustible motive force. So is the Jevons Paradox good news, or bad news?

Those who cannot use AI will be killed off by those who can; those who misuse AI will be killed off by AI itself. The first three industrial revolutions replaced physical strength yet always found compensation; the fourth revolution replaces intellectual strength itself, yet the newly opened window is nowhere to be seen. This article dissects this dual mechanism and searches for two moats.

Since the lobsters arrived, the word Agent has been appearing more and more often, yet many people still can't tell AI, LLMs, Harnesses, and Agents apart. This essay traces the history of the Agent concept — and offers my view: the Agent is the Actor in World 4. Understanding this is your ticket to navigating the world to come.

Destruction is not one word but three levels: humanity dies while Gaia lives on; Gaia dies while the planet keeps turning; and even the planet itself is gone. How deep destruction cuts depends on where the boundary of ethics is drawn — and that boundary is one humanity has spent thousands of years extending. Measured against today's human behavior, we have walked to the edge of all three.

On September 3, OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra, and president Brockman declared, \"Welcome to the AGI era.\" The whole internet is arguing over whether Astra is truly AGI. My answer is blunt: it is not yet. To judge AGI, I do not use the yardstick of \"how capable it is,\" but rather \"whether it can autonomously generate its own goals\"—what this essay calls the criterion of \"autonomous nucleation.\"

Humanity simultaneously faces global warming, ecosystem collapse, geopolitical rivalry, space expansion, and an AI arms race — multiple complex mega-systems interweave and erupt, while no single brain or institution can see the whole picture. This resembles a devil's wager: the stake is the survival of civilization, and no one at the table knows what the next card will be.

If you feed a large language model all of human physics knowledge prior to 1905, can it derive special relativity? A recent position paper from Google DeepMind says no—because the crucial leap in scientific discovery comes from something LLMs will never have: sensory experience.

On July 23, 2026, Wang Hong won the Fields Medal with a 127-page human proof, while an AI solved a half-century-old graph theory conjecture in 3 pages. This isn't a contest between human and machine—it's the emerging fault line between two kinds of intelligence: the ability to spontaneously generate a nucleus of inquiry.

After four days of wrestling with AI to fix a broken website, my lobster Ximiao said something that hit me like a lightning bolt: Code is AI's mother tongue. English is just the translation it offers us. When no one learns this language anymore, how does humanity negotiate power?

Every species that has come to dominate an ecological niche has specialized in at least one direction to an extreme degree. Humanity's specialization was not in teeth, fur, or speed—but in a brain that has been expanding for nearly seven million years. The true product of this organ was not intelligence, but civilization itself.

1975年阿西洛马，科学家们自愿暂停重组DNA实验。2017年，844人签署23条AI原则。但现在，当人们比任何时候都更需要坐在一起时，世界正在分裂成相互竞争的阵营。

In The Three-Body Problem, Thomas Wade held humanity's last chance to escape the solar system—and Cheng Xin surrendered it. This is not just fiction. It reveals a profound cognitive trap: the Wade Paradox. The only way out is the Sacred Wager—betting on superintelligence.

James Lovelock proposes: the Anthropocene is drawing to a close, and the Novacene is arriving. The future world will be dominated by inorganic life—cyborgs. Humanity is the infant of the cosmos; becoming the midwife to cyborgs is our path to self-redemption.

If we call our own scale of life the macroscopic, then how many additional levels of life exist in the microscopic and cosmic directions? Our solar system may be nothing more than a single bacterium, and the Milky Way a bacterial film.